Key takeaways
- With the default values (industry, 24 months), a lead costs a typical €115 via Google Ads, €233 via outbound and €72 via organic search
- Additional AI visibility comes out as a scenario at around €192 per lead, organic plus AI together at around €80
- Organic search is the most expensive after 6 months at around €190 per lead and falls to around €66 after 36 months
- 67 percent of B2B buyers prefer to buy without a sales rep (Gartner, March 2026)
- Close rate, customer value and the AI multiplier are assumptions, the result is a market range and not a quote
A lead costs very different amounts depending on the channel, and the math changes with the horizon. Google Ads and outbound deliver immediately and end with the budget. Organic search and AI visibility build up over months and stay in place as an asset. The calculator puts all four channels on the same metric, cost per lead and per customer, and shows every assumption openly. The AI channel is a scenario with uncertainty.
Why this calculation matters right now
Decision-makers do their research before they talk to a sales rep, and they increasingly use AI for it. The numbers come from international surveys and point in the same direction.
- According to Gartner (646 B2B buyers, March 2026), 67 percent prefer to buy without a sales rep, up from 61 percent the year before.
- 45 percent of buyers used generative AI in their last purchase, mainly for vendor and product research. 69 percent still want to check AI answers with a sales rep (Gartner, May 2026).
- 6sense: 94 percent of buying groups ranked their preferred vendors before first contact, and the favorite wins in around eight out of ten cases (77 to 80 percent according to the press release, November 2025).
- In Germany, half of respondents use AI chats for internet search at least occasionally (Bitkom, November 2025, not a pure B2B sample).
- When a Google AI Overview appears, the click-through rate for position 1 drops by around 58 percent (Ahrefs, February 2026, desktop).
At the same time, outbound is getting fewer replies. Hunter measures an average of 4.1 percent replies for cold emails and only 2.1 percent for campaigns with more than 1,000 recipients. On LinkedIn, the reply rate to connection requests fell from 3.5 to 2.2 percent within twelve months, according to Expandi. Belkins arrives at 0.45 percent, based on all emails sent. The measurement methods differ, which is why the positive reply rate in the calculator is an input field.
How the calculator works
Every channel is brought down to two metrics, cost per lead and cost per customer.
Google Ads: Media budget and cost per click give the clicks, and the click-to-lead rate turns those into leads. A markup for agency and tools is added to the budget (default 20 percent). Cost per lead is constant because ads work immediately and end with the budget.
Outbound: Monthly costs are tools, domains and data plus working time times hourly cost. Leads come from contacts times positive reply rate times the share of qualified leads.
Organic search: The investment runs every month. Leads rise linearly from zero to the target value (sessions times lead rate) over the build-up time, then stay constant. That is why cumulative cost per lead falls with the horizon.
AI visibility: An additional investment generates additional sessions from AI answers. The lead rate of these visitors is the organic rate times a multiplier that you set with a slider between 1.0 and 3.0. The default is 1.5.
Range: Optimistic and pessimistic change the rates by plus or minus 30 percent (adjustable). For the AI multiplier, 3.0 and 1.0 apply.
Cost per customer: Cost per lead divided by the close rate.
Example calculation
| Kanal | Kosten pro Anfrage, typisch | Spanne | Kosten pro Kunde, typisch | Anfragen in 24 Monaten |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Ads (3.000 € Media, CPC 2,10 €, 2,2 %, 20 % Aufschlag) | 115 € | 88 bis 164 € | 458 € | 754 |
| Outbound (1.500 Kontakte, 1.400 € pro Monat, 1,0 % positive Antwort, 40 % qualifiziert) | 233 € | 179 bis 333 € | 933 € | 144 |
| Organische Suche (2.500 € pro Monat, 3.000 Sitzungen, 1,5 %, Aufbau 12 Monate) | 72 € | 55 bis 103 € | 288 € | 833 |
| KI-Sichtbarkeit zusätzlich (500 € pro Monat, 150 Sitzungen, Multiplikator 1,5) | 192 € | 74 bis 412 € | 769 € | 62 |
| Organisch und KI zusammen | 80 € | 58 bis 118 € | 322 € | 895 |
With the default values, organic search is the cheapest at around €72, followed by ads (€115), additional AI visibility (€192) and outbound (€233). At a customer value of €80,000, cost per customer is 0.6 percent for ads, 1.2 percent for outbound and 0.4 percent for organic plus AI.
The AI row is expensive because the volume in the example is small: 150 sessions per month, 62 leads in 24 months. The €500 a month is also below the published GEO retainers of €1,200 to €2,500 (Blck Alpaca, 2026, vendor figure). At €1,200, the AI row rises to around €461 per lead and organic plus AI to around €99. The calculator does not capture visibility among decision-makers who do their research before they click.
Costs over time
| Nach Monaten | Organisch | KI zusätzlich | Organisch und KI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 190 € | 508 € | 213 € |
| 12 | 103 € | 274 € | 114 € |
| 24 | 72 € | 192 € | 80 € |
| 36 | 66 € | 175 € | 73 € |
How strongly the AI multiplier works
At a multiplier of 1.0, the AI row costs around €288 per lead, at 1.5 around €192 and at 3.0 around €96. At 3.0 it is cheaper than ads (€115), at 1.0 it is more expensive than outbound (€233). Organic search stays the cheapest in all three cases.
Assumptions and sources
| Annahme | Wert (Standard Industrie) | Quelle | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPC und Anfragerate bei Google Ads | je Branche, siehe unten | Bravery Technology: B2B/SaaS in Deutschland 2,48 Euro und 2,8 %, Immobilien 1,72 Euro und 2,8 %, Automotive 1,62 Euro und 3,2 %, Recht und Anwälte 3,10 Euro und 3,4 %. Gesamtmarkt Deutschland 1,32 Euro und 3,6 % | G für IT und Immobilien, G als Proxy für Automotive (Mobilität) und Recht und Anwälte (Beratung und Kanzleien), sonst A |
| Aufschlag für Agentur und Tools | 20 % | Erfahrungswert | A |
| Anfragerate organisch | je Branche, Standard 1,5 % | LowCode Agency: Software 1,5 bis 3 %, Industrie 1 bis 2,5 %, Professional Services 3 bis 5 % (Sekundärquelle, Juni 2026) | G als Sekundärquelle |
| Positive Antwortquote Outbound | 1,0 % | Messungen für alle Antworten liegen zwischen 0,45 % (Belkins) und 4,1 % (Hunter). Der positive Anteil ist nicht ausgewiesen | A |
| Qualifizierungsquote Outbound | 40 % | Erfahrungswert | A |
| Outbound-Kosten | 400 Euro Tools, 20 Stunden zu 50 Euro | Erfahrungswert, DACH-Benchmark fehlt | A |
| SEO-Investment | 2.500 Euro pro Monat | Evergreen Media: Agentur-Retainer 1.000 bis 8.000 Euro pro Monat, Mittelstadt 2.000 bis 4.000 Euro | G für die Bandbreite |
| GEO-Investment | 500 Euro pro Monat zusätzlich | Blck Alpaca: GEO-Retainer 1.200 bis 2.500 Euro pro Monat (Anbieterangabe) | A, bewusst unter Retainer, weil auf SEO aufgesetzt |
| Aufbaudauer | 12 Monate | Erfahrungswert | A |
| KI-Multiplikator | 1,5, Regler 1,0 bis 3,0 | Ahrefs: Besucher aus KI-Suche konvertierten auf der eigenen Website rund 23-mal so stark (0,5 % der Besucher, 12,1 % der Anmeldungen). Einzelfall, der Autor warnt vor Verallgemeinerung | Quelle G, Standardwert A, bewusst konservativ |
| Abschlussquote und Kundenwert (alle Branchen) | 25 % und 80.000 Euro im Standard, je Branche 15 bis 40 % und 6.000 bis 80.000 Euro | Eigene Annahmen ohne Quelle, bitte durch eigene CRM-Werte ersetzen | A |
Industries compared
The answer differs by industry because CPC, lead rate and close rate are far apart. Trades and real estate have low click prices and high rates, mobility and aviation a low close rate. Consulting and law firms have the highest click price in the set at €3.10 (proxy for legal and attorneys, Bravery Technology). Close rate and customer value are assumptions in all seven industries, so replace them with your own CRM values.
| Branche | CPC | Ads: Klick zu Anfrage | Organisch: Besucher zu Anfrage | Abschlussquote | Ads pro Anfrage | Outbound pro Anfrage | Organisch pro Anfrage | Organisch und KI pro Anfrage | Ads pro Kunde | Organisch und KI pro Kunde |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IT und Software | 2,48 € | 2,8 % | 2,0 % | 20 % | 106 € | 233 € | 54 € | 60 € | 531 € | 302 € |
| Industrie und Maschinenbau | 2,10 € | 2,2 % | 1,5 % | 25 % | 115 € | 233 € | 72 € | 80 € | 458 € | 322 € |
| Immobilien | 1,72 € | 2,8 % | 2,8 % | 30 % | 74 € | 233 € | 39 € | 43 € | 246 € | 144 € |
| Energie und Nachhaltigkeit | 2,00 € | 2,2 % | 1,5 % | 20 % | 109 € | 233 € | 72 € | 80 € | 545 € | 402 € |
| Mobilität und Luftfahrt | 1,62 € | 3,2 % | 1,2 % | 15 % | 61 € | 233 € | 90 € | 101 € | 405 € | 670 € |
| Handwerk und Gewerbe | 1,80 € | 3,5 % | 3,5 % | 40 % | 62 € | 194 € | 31 € | 34 € | 154 € | 86 € |
| Beratung und Kanzleien | 3,10 € | 3,4 % | 3,0 % | 30 % | 109 € | 179 € | 36 € | 40 € | 365 € | 134 € |
In mobility and aviation, ads per customer are cheaper than organic plus AI because the organic rate is only 1.2 percent. With small target groups and little search volume, ads and outbound often make more sense.
Limits of the calculator
- Visibility counts for more than the click: The calculator only values direct leads. Companies that get named in AI answers are more often contacted for validation without a prior click.
- Volume: Cost per lead says nothing about whether a channel delivers enough leads.
- Linear build-up: Rankings and AI citations arrive in jumps and cannot be guaranteed.
- AI multiplier: A single case from Ahrefs is not a market figure. Use the slider and treat 1.0 as the lower bound.
- Source quality: The studies are international and partly vendor figures. For mechanical engineering, energy and aviation, there are hardly any reliable German series.
- Not included: Brand impact, referrals, trade fairs and partner sales. For consulting and law firms there is no dedicated source: CPC and lead rate are a proxy from legal and attorneys. According to Bravery Technology, individual specialist-attorney keywords cost €5 to €35 per click (no source given), while the category average is €3.10.
When ads and outbound still make sense
Ads pay off when you need leads quickly, are testing a new offer, or demand exists but your ranking is still missing. Outbound pays off for small, clearly defined target groups, a high customer value and personal outreach. Both work better when a website with clear positioning and proof is waiting afterwards.
How we implement this
Webwavers offers SEO and GEO, meaning visibility in classic search results and in AI answers, as a service. How we approach it is described on the GEO page, with the basics in the article SEO vs. GEO. The article on measuring AI visibility explains how to check whether you show up in AI answers. For a specific project, you can reach us through the contact page.
Frequently asked questions
What does a lead via Google Ads cost in B2B in Germany?
Bravery Technology gives €2.48 per click at a 2.8 percent lead rate for B2B and SaaS in Germany, and €1.32 and 3.6 percent for the overall market. Before agency markup, that works out to around €89 per lead for B2B and SaaS and around €37 for the overall market.
Organic search or Google Ads: which is cheaper per lead?
Calculated over 24 months, organic search is cheaper in the default example (around €72 versus €115). Calculated over 6 months, this flips (around €190 for organic). Ads deliver immediately, organic search takes time and stays in place afterwards.
Is AI visibility (GEO) worth it for a B2B company?
The calculator shows a scenario for this. At a small AI volume, the direct cost per lead is high. Against that, 45 percent of buyers used generative AI in their last purchase and 69 percent want to check the answers with a sales rep (Gartner, 2026).
Do visitors from ChatGPT convert better than visitors from Google?
Ahrefs reports around 23 times higher conversion for visitors from AI search on its own website. The author himself warns against generalizing. That is why the calculator uses 1.5 as the default and lets you go up to 3.0.
How do I reach decision-makers when cold outreach and ads barely work anymore?
By being visible where they do their research before the first conversation: in search results, in AI answers and on a website with clear proof. Outbound stays as a complement, especially for small target groups.
What is the CPC in mechanical engineering or real estate?
For real estate, Bravery Technology gives €1.72 at a 2.8 percent lead rate in Germany. For mechanical engineering there is no reliable source, so the calculator uses €2.10 as an assumption.
Sources
- Gartner, 67 Prozent der B2B-Käufer bevorzugen rep-freien Kauf (09.03.2026) (67 percent of B2B buyers prefer a rep-free purchase)
- Gartner, 69 Prozent validieren KI-Antworten beim Vertrieb (20.05.2026) (69 percent validate AI answers with sales)
- 6sense, 2025 B2B Buyer Experience Report (Pressemitteilung) (press release)
- Bitkom, Internet-Suche im Wandel (20.11.2025) (internet search in transition)
- Ahrefs, AI Overviews reduce clicks (Update 2026)
- Ahrefs, AI-Suche und Conversion (AI search and conversion)
- Hunter, State of Cold Email 2025
- Belkins, Cold Email Response Rates
- Belkins, LinkedIn Outreach Study
- Expandi, LinkedIn Outreach Benchmarks 2026
- Bravery Technology, Google-Ads-Statistiken Deutschland (Google Ads statistics Germany)
- Bravery Technology, Digitalmarketing für Anwaltskanzleien (digital marketing for law firms)
- LowCode Agency, B2B-Conversion-Benchmarks nach Branche (B2B conversion benchmarks by industry)
- Evergreen Media, SEO-Kosten (SEO costs)
- Blck Alpaca, GEO-Optimierung Kosten (GEO optimization costs)
